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When Polymarket says 70%, does it happen 70% of the time? I checked against 19.4M price snapshots.

When Polymarket says 70%, does it happen 70% of the time? I checked against 19.4M price snapshots.

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4 min read
Stop Shipping ML Models With Bare Floats: A Deep Dive Into Statistically Rigorous Model Evaluation

Stop Shipping ML Models With Bare Floats: A Deep Dive Into Statistically Rigorous Model Evaluation

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4 min read
Power analysis for LLM evals: how big does your eval set need to be to catch a 5% regression?

Power analysis for LLM evals: how big does your eval set need to be to catch a 5% regression?

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2 min read
A Scatter-Plot Explorer for World Statistics — Log Scales and Hand-Rolled Pearson Correlation

A Scatter-Plot Explorer for World Statistics — Log Scales and Hand-Rolled Pearson Correlation

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5 min read
Por que n=50.000 mentiu para mim: a armadilha estatística por trás de uma falsa vantagem setorial

Por que n=50.000 mentiu para mim: a armadilha estatística por trás de uma falsa vantagem setorial

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5 min read
The Beta-Binomial trick for not overreacting to a tiny sample

The Beta-Binomial trick for not overreacting to a tiny sample

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3 min read
maskedcauses: Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Masked Series System Failures

maskedcauses: Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Masked Series System Failures

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5 min read
Graduate Statistics Problem Sets

Graduate Statistics Problem Sets

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2 min read
Going Back for a Second Master's, This Time in Math

Going Back for a Second Master's, This Time in Math

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2 min read
Review: A Symbolic Representation of Time Series, with Implications for Streaming Algorithms

Review: A Symbolic Representation of Time Series, with Implications for Streaming Algorithms

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7 min read
Model Selection for Weibull Series Systems: When Simpler Models Suffice

Model Selection for Weibull Series Systems: When Simpler Models Suffice

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3 min read
Predicciones de fútbol con Poisson, xG y calibración: qué puede hacer la IA

Predicciones de fútbol con Poisson, xG y calibración: qué puede hacer la IA

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3 min read
Statistical analysis with Python: descriptive statistics, inference, regression, and time series

Statistical analysis with Python: descriptive statistics, inference, regression, and time series

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3 min read
Your Regression Model Lies When X Doesn't Vary — And You Probably Don't Notice

Your Regression Model Lies When X Doesn't Vary — And You Probably Don't Notice

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3 min read
Seu modelo de regressão mente quando X não varia — e você provavelmente não percebe

Seu modelo de regressão mente quando X não varia — e você provavelmente não percebe

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3 min read
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